Wins Above Bubble (WAB) compares each result to how a playoff bubble team (the 12th-best team in each system) would do against the same opponent in the same place.
If the bubble team would win a game 70% of the time, a win earns +0.30 and a loss costs −0.70. Add up every game: above zero beats a bubble team's résumé.
Upcoming shows what each remaining game is worth: W+ is what a win adds and L− is what a loss costs. Win % is the team's own chance of winning.
Calculated with FPI, SP+, and FEI.
Bubble team rating: FPI 18.1 | SP+ 18.5 | FEI 0.94
Ratings last changed: Oct 19 (FPI, SP+, FEI). Games through Oct 17. Opponents are valued at their current rating, so a team's WAB can move even in a week it doesn't play.
Method
Win chances come from the rating gap between the two teams, on a bell curve sized to each system's spread of ratings. Settings, in standard deviations: game-to-game noise 1.15, home field 0.19, FCS opponents −2.4. Calibrated to 2026 results using the ratings each system had before each game.
Home field is a flat boost for the home side: about FPI 2.4 points, SP+ 2.4 points, and FEI 0.13 (FEI's own scale). Neutral sites get none. The bubble team plays where the real team played. The boost matters most in close games: a bubble team's 50% becomes 57% at home and 43% on the road, while 90% becomes 93% at home and 87% on the road.
Download daily WAB history (12-team bubble).